The housing market recovery hasn’t taken off yet, but a rally in its stocks sure has. The Standard & Poor’s homebuilders index is up 60 percent since October.  Given that stock prices tend to anticipate business trends, does that mean a housing market rebound is imminent during the spring home-selling season?

Not necessarily. The biggest sustained rally in homebuilding stocks in years and recent upbeat home sales data, however, have injected some long-absent optimism into the outlook for housing.  Sales of previously occupied homes rose for three straight months at the end of last year. The glut of houses on the market is diminishing, down to 2.4 million previously owned homes on the market in December from 3.8 million in June. And buyers are slowly regaining a little bit of confidence.

“The housing market enters the spring selling season in absolutely the best shape it’s been since 2005,’’ says analyst Eric Landry, who follows homebuilding stocks for Morningstar. “Sales will still likely be below normal, but inventories are in the best shape they’ve been in years.’’  The government’s landmark $25 billion settlement of foreclosure abuses is the latest dose of good news. Financial analysts see it as helping to clear the way for builders to gear up construction activity.

The CEOs of some of the biggest homebuilders said during earnings conference calls this month that the housing market has stabilized. But they were cautious about making any bullish forecasts.

Major improvement in the industry won’t take place until next year, according to a forecast by the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, David Crowe.  More important for investors, the big run-up in stock prices in the last four months makes a correction likely soon. Homebuilding stocks have a history of declining after rising in the months ahead of spring selling season.  The current rally is seen by some as the opening act in a multi-year recovery for the stocks. Low interest rates, more affordable home prices and pent-up demand should help them rise further.

But the stocks are no longer cheap. Most are currently trading at roughly 1.5 times book value — considered the best way to value this group. Book value is the value of a company’s assets if it were to be liquidated. Their current value strongly suggests they are overpriced.

Investors would be wise to keep an eye on housing-related stocks. With prices having shot up, though, they should exercise caution. Waiting for a pullback and buying after spring home-selling season, if the industry still has momentum, makes more sense. That should put investors in much better position to profit from the coming rebound.

Housing experts’ predictions for the new year tend to center around a market stabilizing before entering a gradual, albeit very slow, recovery. However, the tone is more upbeat than it has been in years for the housing market.

Here are a few of the signs that are showing the market moving in a more positive direction:

Home sales: Existing home sales are expected to increase 12 percent this year, following a 2 percent jump last year, Moody’s Analytics predicts. The signs are already showing: In November, pending home sales — a gauge for future home buying — reached its highest level in 19 months, the National Association of REALTORS® reported. (Read more.)

New-home market: Coming off of what could be considered the worst year for new-home building ever recorded, the sector is expected to bounce back this year. New-home sales and starts were already showing a rebound in the last few months of 2011. Moody’s is predicting that single-family housing starts will increase 37 percent this year, and new-home sales will soar 74 percent.

Housing stocks: Investors are starting to get optimistic about the possibility of a rebound too, and are turning to home builder stocks. These equities have recently outperformed the broader stock market and the S&P 1500 homebuilding index has increased 38 percent since mid-October, USA Today reports.

Consumer confidence: With mortgage rates at record lows and housing affordability high, about 71 percent of Americans say now is a good time to purchase a home. Also, more Americans are optimistic that home prices will rise over the next year — about 26 percent say prices will rise in 2012, an increase of 4 percent over the last survey, according to Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey

–Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed–Copyright: 2012 by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®
Prepared by ROBERT HARRIS of BHG REAL ESTATE III – NORTH on 1/13/2012 9:07:37 AM

Western Bypass Updates
Updated 21 Nov 2011  On 11/11/11, VDOT issued an amended Request For Proposal (RFP) pertaining to the Western By-Pass that included all of the recommendations for the northern terminus submitted by Ken Boyd’s Western Bypass Northern Terminus Committee, including no additional traffic signals, no U-turns, and a location on the western side of Rt. 29 south of Ashwood Blvd. The amendment also requires the northern terminus be designed to incorporate the widening of Rt. 29 to six lanes.

For further information, visit VDOT’s Project Site.  For historical information, visit the Local Development page.

For more than a decade, retired Americans that are flocking to the culture and arts scenes and state-of-the-art medical facilities offered by college campuses. More institutions of higher learning are reaching out to retirees, promoting free or reduced-rate college courses, performances and lectures, according to a report last week by the Associated Press. Some have partnered with retirement residences in the area.

“People think seniors today are looking for sun and sand and not much else,” Jill Lillie, director of marketing at The Village at Penn State, a continuing care residence in State College, Pa, told the Associated Press. “But boomers are focused on new challenges. They want to enrich their lives, write a new chapter.”

For those post50s looking for an intellectual adventure and cultural hub, here are 10 ideas for people who want a college town haven. If your top pick isn’t among this list, share it with us in the comments section!

Information from our local Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors MLS indicates that out of approximately 1,400 homes in Forest Lakes there are just 24 homes for sale, only 2 of which are deemed distressed properties, and just a scant few for rent. In the past month there have been 8 Forest Lakes homes go under contract, while in the past three months there have been 22 homes go under contract. Could it be that there may be only three months of standing inventory? If you are looking for a great place to live that’s beautiful, clean, safe while being convenient to everything, please give Forest Lakes a look. It’s not only a great place to live and raise a family, it’s a great investment.

;Looking west over Charlottesville from RT 20

By:
Daily
Progress Staff Reports

Published:
September 20, 2011
The Charlottesville metropolitan area, including Albemarle County nd much of Central Virginia, has been rated the No. 1 place to live in
the United States by Sperling’s Ranked and Rated, in collaboration with Yahoo Real Estate.

The list includes Santa Fe, N.M., and Honolulu.

“The company noted our clean environment and low unemployment rate, as well as the ‘wealth of amenities and entertainment.’ This accolade follows many similar in recent years that noted the great quality of life and opportunities of the city,” said Ric Barrick, Charlottesville spokesman.

“Nestled in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, most areas of this idyllic city are accessible by foot or bicycle,” the survey states. “Charlottesville
enjoys clean air and water, and pleasant weather year-round, highlighted by especially beautiful fall foliage. Nearby Shenandoah National Park
offers a wealth of recreation opportunities. Charlottesville is home to the University of Virginia, which strengthens the area’s healthy economy by providing steady jobs
and a wealth of amenities and entertainment.”

Unemployment rates and home values quoted in the survey reflect the metropolitan statistical area, which includes Fluvanna, Louisa, Greene, Albemarle, Orange
and Nelson counties, as well as the city.

“As more and more people learn about this year’s best city, Charlottesville may find staying affordable and sprawl-free is its greatest challenge,” the survey states.

By: Daily Progress Staff Reports
Published: September 20, 2011

The Charlottesville metropolitan area, including Albemarle County and much of Central Virginia, has been rated the No. 1 place to live in the United States by Sperling’s Ranked and Rated, in collaboration with Yahoo Real Estate.

The list includes Santa Fe, N.M., and Honolulu.

“The company noted our clean environment and low unemployment rate, as well as the ‘wealth of amenities and entertainment.’ This accolade follows many similar in recent years that noted the great quality of life and opportunities of the city,” said Ric Barrick, Charlottesville spokesman.

“Nestled in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, most areas of this idyllic city are accessible by foot or bicycle,” the survey states. “Charlottesville enjoys clean air and water, and pleasant weather year-round, highlighted by especially beautiful fall foliage. Nearby Shenandoah National Park offers a wealth of recreation opportunities. Charlottesville is home to the University of Virginia, which strengthens the area’s healthy economy by providing steady jobs and a wealth of amenities and entertainment.”

Unemployment rates and home values quoted in the survey reflect the metropolitan statistical area, which includes Fluvanna, Louisa, Greene, Albemarle, Orange and Nelson counties, as well as the city.

“As more and more people learn about this year’s best city, Charlottesville may find staying affordable and sprawl-free is its greatest challenge,” the survey states.

The Forest Lakes market remains strong. Information from our local CAAR Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors MLS indicates that out of approximately 1,400 homes in the Forest Lakes neighborhood there are just 26 homes for sale, zero of which are deemed distressed properties, and just a scant few for rent. In the past month there have been 8 Forest Lakes homes go under contract, while in the past three months there have been 23 homes go under contract. Could it be that there may be only three months of standing inventory? If you are looking for a great place to live that’s beautiful, clean, safe while being convenient to everything, please give Forest Lakes a look. It’s not only a great place to live and raise a family, it’s a great investment.